A brief history of intelligence

After reading this book I have to say it is currently the number 1 recommendation I give if somebody wants to try to understand how the human brain works. Starting from eukaryotes Max Bennett tried to reason about what it means for a living organism to be intelligent. Not only did he summarize the current literature he also synthesized the main ideas into 5 breakthroughs: Steering Reinforcing Simulating Mentalizing Speaking One important note about the whole story is, that it is about the human lineage in the evolutional history, and therefore about animals, vertebrates, mammals and primates. ...

November 8, 2025 · Daniel Siemmeister

Criticality

Critical Mass, Length, Temperature Many systems and processes—whether in nature or society—can appear unchanging until they reach a certain transition point, after which their behavior shifts dramatically. Think of disease outbreaks, the spread of information in a network, or battery failures in electric vehicles. Let’s go through some examples. Disease Outbreaks Consider a disease outbreak such as COVID-19 in 2020. The goal of many governments was not just to reduce infections slightly, but to bring the average number of new infections per case—known as the reproduction number, or $R_0$—below the critical threshold of 1. When $R_0 < 1$, each infected person, on average, transmits the disease to fewer than one other person, and the outbreak dies out. However, if $R_0 > 1$ even by a small margin, the number of infections can grow exponentially. ...

February 28, 2025 · Daniel Siemmeister

Los Alamos Primer

Do you trust your calculations? This book review is about The Los Alamos Primer, the first lectures on how to build an atomic bomb, by Robert Serber. The review focuses on the basic calculations and physics knowledge of the Manhattan Project scientists. Since the Primer is a collection of 1943 lecture notes combined with Serber’s hindsight commentary, it corrects some of the original calculations and measurements by comparing them with modern values. This makes it fascinating to see how close—or off—the physicists were at the time. For anyone interested in the topic, I highly recommend reading both the Primer and The Making of the Atomic Bomb by Richard Rhodes, one of my all-time favorite books. ...

February 10, 2025 · Daniel Siemmeister

Why Nations Fail

The Mystery of Inequality Why are some countries rich and stable while their neighbors are poor and chaotic? In their 2012 book Why Nations Fail, Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson argue that the answer isn’t geography, culture, or luck. It comes down to one thing: institutions. The authors open with a perfect real-world experiment: the city of Nogales. A fence cuts the city in half. North (Arizona, USA): Residents have property rights, a functioning legal system, and can vote people out of office. They are relatively wealthy and healthy. South (Sonora, Mexico): Just a few feet away, residents face corruption, unreliable laws, and economic instability. They earn a fraction of what their northern neighbors do. Both sides share the same geography, the same climate, and the same culture. The only difference is the system they live in. ...

January 29, 2025 · Daniel Siemmeister

The Kelly Criterion

What is it? Why is it interesting? Consider a toy example of a gamble. Someone offers you a game where a fair coin will be tossed: you will win 70% of the money you bet when heads comes up and lose 60% of the money you bet when tails comes up. Furthermore, you are offered the opportunity to play this game many times, although not arbitrarily often, say just once a day. Intuitively, this gamble seems favorable, especially when you are allowed to play it repeatedly. However, it becomes trickier when you ask yourself questions like, “How much of my total wealth should I bet?” and “What is the best strategy to maximize my long-term wealth, say over 10 years?” The Kelly Criterion provides the answer to these questions! ...

January 21, 2025 · Daniel Siemmeister

Criticality Part 2: Bifurcations, Universality, and Self-Organization Introduction Recap of Part 1: tipping point vs. continuous criticality What’s missing: the geometric picture, why different systems share exponents, systems that find criticality on their own Goal: connect phenomenological classification to deeper mathematical frameworks Bifurcations: The Deterministic Skeleton Phase Portraits and Fixed Points State space, trajectories, attractors Fixed point stability: linearization and eigenvalues Basins of attraction: which initial conditions lead where Catalog of Local Bifurcations Saddle-Node Bifurcation Normal form: $\dot{x} = r + x^2$ Two fixed points collide and annihilate The canonical “tipping point”—no smooth return Examples: extinction thresholds, financial crises, regime shifts in ecosystems Transcritical Bifurcation Normal form: $\dot{x} = rx - x^2$ Two fixed points exchange stability Connection to exponential growth model from Part 1 Pitchfork Bifurcation Supercritical: $\dot{x} = rx - x^3$ (smooth symmetry breaking) Subcritical: $\dot{x} = rx + x^3$ (discontinuous jump) Connection to continuous vs. tipping point criticality Hopf Bifurcation Fixed point gives way to limit cycle Supercritical vs. subcritical variants Examples: oscillations in predator-prey systems, electrical circuits Global Bifurcations Homoclinic and heteroclinic bifurcations Why local analysis isn’t always enough Catastrophe theory: Thom’s classification Interactive: Bifurcation Explorer Phase portrait that deforms as control parameter changes Visualize fixed point creation/destruction/stability exchange Show corresponding bifurcation diagram From Bifurcations to Statistical Mechanics The Role of Many Degrees of Freedom Single ODE → lattice of coupled units Fluctuations and noise enter naturally Mean-field theory: averaging over neighbors recovers bifurcation-like equations Landau Theory of Phase Transitions Free energy as a function of order parameter Equilibrium: minimize free energy Taylor expansion near transition: $F(m) = a(T)m^2 + bm^4 + \ldots$ Connection to pitchfork bifurcation Order Parameter Behavior Near Criticality Power-law scaling: $m \sim |T - T_c|^\beta$ Critical exponent $\beta$ characterizes the transition Mean-field prediction vs. reality: fluctuations matter in low dimensions Correlation Length and Susceptibility Correlation length $\xi$: how far do fluctuations propagate? $\xi \sim |T - T_c|^{-\nu}$ diverges at criticality Susceptibility $\chi \sim |T - T_c|^{-\gamma}$: response to perturbations diverges Critical slowing down: relaxation time also diverges Universality: Why Details Don’t Matter The Puzzle Liquid-gas transition in water and magnetization in iron follow same power laws Microscopic physics completely different How can this be? What Determines Universality Class Dimensionality of space Symmetry of order parameter (scalar, vector, etc.) Range of interactions (short vs. long range) What doesn’t matter: lattice structure, precise interaction strengths, chemical details The Renormalization Group Idea Coarse-Graining Block spins: average over small regions Ask: what effective Hamiltonian describes the coarse-grained system? Iterate: zoom out repeatedly RG Flow and Fixed Points Parameters flow under coarse-graining Fixed points of the flow = scale-invariant systems = critical points Behavior near fixed point determines critical exponents Intuitive Picture At criticality, zooming out doesn’t change statistical properties The system “looks the same” at all scales This self-similarity is the origin of power laws Scaling Relations Critical exponents aren’t independent Relations like $\alpha + 2\beta + \gamma = 2$ (Rushbrooke) Follow from self-consistency of RG picture Reduces number of independent exponents Table of Universality Classes Class Examples $\beta$ $\nu$ $\gamma$ 2D Ising Uniaxial magnets, lattice gas 1/8 1 7/4 3D Ising Liquid-gas, binary mixtures ~0.326 ~0.630 ~1.237 Mean-field High dimensions, long-range 1/2 1/2 1 2D Percolation Porous media, networks 5/36 4/3 43/18 3D Percolation Composite materials ~0.41 ~0.88 ~1.80 Fractals at Criticality Why Fractals Emerge No characteristic length scale at $p_c$ or $T_c$ Structures must be self-similar Fractal geometry is the natural description Fractal Dimension Definition: $M(L) \sim L^{d_f}$ where $d_f$ is fractal dimension For percolation cluster at $p_c$: $d_f < d$ (spatial dimension) 2D percolation: $d_f = 91/48 \approx 1.896$ The cluster fills space “incompletely” Fractal Dimension as Critical Exponent Related to other exponents through scaling relations $d_f = d - \beta/\nu$ connects geometry to thermodynamics Measuring $d_f$ gives information about universality class Examples of Critical Fractals Percolation clusters at threshold Ising domain boundaries at $T_c$ Coastlines and river networks (approximately) Diffusion-limited aggregation Interactive: Box-Counting on Critical Cluster Generate percolation cluster at $p = p_c$ Overlay boxes of decreasing size Plot $\log N$ vs. $\log (1/\epsilon)$ Slope gives fractal dimension Self-Organized Criticality The Tuning Problem In standard criticality: must tune control parameter precisely to $p_c$ But power laws appear everywhere in nature Who is doing the tuning? SOC: Criticality Without Tuning Some systems naturally evolve toward critical state Separation of timescales is key: slow drive, fast relaxation System “self-organizes” to the boundary between stability and instability The BTW Sandpile Model Rules 2D lattice, each site has “sand grains” $z_{ij}$ Slowly add grains at random sites If $z_{ij} \geq 4$, site topples: loses 4 grains, neighbors each gain 1 Toppling can trigger neighbors → avalanche Grains fall off at boundaries Emergent Behavior System reaches statistical steady state Avalanche size distribution follows power law: $P(s) \sim s^{-\tau}$ No characteristic avalanche size Always poised at criticality Other Examples of SOC Earthquakes: Gutenberg-Richter law $P(E) \sim E^{-b}$ Forest fires: burned area distribution Mass extinctions: species loss events Neural avalanches in brain activity Solar flares: energy release distribution Controversies and Limitations Is true SOC common, or are power laws often misidentified? Many claimed power laws don’t survive rigorous statistical testing Alternative mechanisms: finite-size effects, superposition, tuning to different points SOC requires specific conditions: slow drive, fast relaxation, no characteristic scale in driving Interactive: Sandpile Simulation Add grains one by one Visualize avalanches as they propagate Plot avalanche size histogram (log-log) Show approach to power-law distribution Synthesis: A Unified View of Criticality The Common Thread Criticality = diverging correlation length = loss of characteristic scale Power laws, fractals, and scale invariance are manifestations of same phenomenon Universality: only symmetry and dimension matter near the fixed point Hierarchy of Descriptions Bifurcation Theory (deterministic, low-dimensional) ↓ add noise, many degrees of freedom Mean-Field / Landau Theory (averaged, approximate) ↓ include fluctuations properly Renormalization Group (full critical behavior) ↓ special dynamics Self-Organized Criticality (criticality as attractor) Mapping the Landscape Framework Tipping Point Continuous Transition Bifurcations Saddle-node, subcritical Supercritical pitchfork, transcritical Phase transitions First-order Second-order (continuous) Order parameter Discontinuous jump Power-law approach to zero Correlation length Finite Diverges Hysteresis Often present Absent Critical exponents Not applicable Universal values Early Warning Signals Approaching tipping points: critical slowing down Variance and autocorrelation increase before transition Flickering between states Potential for prediction and intervention Open Questions Criticality in non-equilibrium systems: active matter, driven systems Quantum criticality: phase transitions at zero temperature Criticality and computation: is the brain critical? Why might this be advantageous? Machine learning on critical systems: can neural networks learn critical exponents? Conclusion Criticality connects dynamical systems, statistical mechanics, and geometry The same mathematical structures appear across physics, biology, and social systems Understanding criticality gives tools for prediction, control, and recognizing universal patterns Much remains unknown, especially in non-equilibrium and living systems Sources Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos by Steven H. Strogatz Statistical Mechanics by James Sethna (especially Chapter 12 on RG) Scale Invariance and Beyond edited by Dubrulle, Graner, Sornette How Nature Works by Per Bak (original SOC book) Critical Phenomena in Natural Sciences by Didier Sornette Clauset, Shalizi, Newman: “Power-Law Distributions in Empirical Data” (arXiv:0706.1062)